LOS ANGELES – Left unabated, the surge of COVID-19 cases ravaging Los Angeles County could threaten the availability of intensive-care unit beds by Christmas, health officials warned Wednesday as they again pleaded for public adherence to infection-control measures.
“Based on current modeling, unless there has been and continues to be changes in community transmission, we do anticipate that we will have a shortage of ICU beds over the next four weeks,” county Health Services Director Dr. Christina Ghaly said. “Hospitals will have to take substantive action to meet the need for hospital and particularly ICU-level care.”
Ghaly said that action could potentially lead to changes in patient-to-staff ratios, meaning hospital staff will be asked to care for more patients than usual. “This is not an ideal situation and can lead to sub-optimal outcomes for patients, but it is an important last option that is available to hospitals that are facing a high volume of patients,” Ghaly said.
Ghaly noted that hospitals can always add physical beds. But finding people to staff those beds and treat the patients in them is the challenge. “What matters is a hospital’s practical ability to take care of the patients that come in the door,” she said. “And that requires not just a bed, but more importantly it requires people, it requires staff, it requires supplies and equipment.”
The county on Wednesday reported that 2,439 people are hospitalized due to the coronavirus, the highest level seen so far during the pandemic. Ghaly said hospitals are averaging nearly 350 new COVID admissions daily, up from about 300 last week.
The county’s overall hospital bed capacity fluctuates constantly based on available staffing and space, but as of Wednesday, the county had about 963 available beds. ICU space was tighter, with about 122 available beds.
Health officials also announced another 5,987 coronavirus cases, down from the record-setting 7,593 cases reported on Tuesday but still well above the daily levels seen a month ago. Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said the average daily average of new cases jumped by 225% during the first three weeks of November, and the numbers are now even dramatically higher.
The new cases announced Wednesday lifted the county’s cumulative total through the pandemic to 414,185. View the latest detailed report by city and demographics here. The county also announced another 40 coronavirus-related deaths, although two of those fatalities were announced Tuesday by health officials in Long Beach. The countywide death toll due to COVID-19 stood at 7,740 as of Wednesday.
Ferrer said the county is also now beginning to see a sharp increase in deaths due to the coronavirus, with the daily average number rising 92% during a two-week period in November. She said the increase in deaths is a natural result of the spike in cases and hospitalizations.
“The virus is relentless,” Ferrer said. “It will continue to be relentless until we can vaccinate the millions of residents and workers that call L.A. County their home. And while we are months away from completing vaccinations of all, there is a bright light at the end of this very dark tunnel. But we’re just not there yet. We’re now at the worst point we’ve experienced thus far in the pandemic.”
Ghaly said the county in the next few days will introduce a pilot at-home testing program “designed to reduce COVID-19 spread throughout the holiday season.” “Individuals will be able to have test specimen kits mailed to their home where they can self-swab and mail the sample back to the lab,” she said.
The program will be offered to people who are showing symptoms of COVID, those who have had a confirmed or suspected contact with an infected person and seniors or disabled residents who may be unable to reach a traditional testing site. Details on the program are expected to be provided on the county’s website.
Despite the continued rise in cases, Ghaly noted that the estimated transmission rate of the virus — the estimated number of people an infected person passes the virus to — decreased over the past week from 1.26 to 1.14. The county estimates now that one in every 200 county residents is infectious with the virus, not including those who are hospitalized or in isolation. That estimate is down from one in every 145 last week.
Ghaly said she couldn’t pinpoint a specific reason for the slight drop in the transmission rate, but said the fact that it remains above 1.0 means the county will continue to see spread of the virus.
Ferrer warned that the recent case statistics continue to paint a dire picture of the pandemic.
“We’re seeing terrifying increases in numbers in L.A. County that can only be turned around if everyone — businesses and individuals — carefully use the tools we have to slow the spread,” she said. “… There are no activities where people shouldn’t be wearing a face covering if they’re outside their homes except for swimming. Everywhere people go, they should be able to keep at least six feet away from others and there should be no crowding.”
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Jimbo says
… coronavirus was originally scheduled to subside, after the elections. Due to voting irregularities, it’s been extended. Indefinitely –
SMH says
“Scheduled to subside?” It will only subside when people stop taking their brains out and playing with them
Alfredo says
The policy community’s credibility is shot; the mainstream media’s credibility is shot. Coronavirus hopelessly politicized, no longer can we have faith in a single thing we’re told by the mainstream media. Much less the hypocrites we’ve been electing to high office –
alfredoAbitch says
You’re a [removed] clown. Yall said covid would disappear after Biden won. Covid still here, its not political [removed].
Jeffy says
Of course you realize, this is political payback. The democrats laughing it up, sticking to you, these lock-downs have nothing whatsoever to do with public safety.
Dave says
How many times did Orange Blossom say the pandemic was going to disappear, it was just around the corner, any day now etc., etc.?
That was back before Easter for those of limited memory.
It’s now worse than ever while he hid in the White House bunker for 2 weeks after the election fussing and fuming about being a BIG FAT HIDEOUS LOSER.
But, he’s paid little attention to the pandemic other than trying to claim credit for the vaccines soon be be issued. Yeah, the stable genius was in the lab doing the work.
Anyway, he’s off to indictments and prison next year.